November 5, 2011…Breeders Cup!

November 5, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 9:30 – 10:30.

Be sure to check with the Plod Boys at www.racingflow.com  for their Upgrade/Downgrade report for the Breeders Cup.

 

*BREEDERS CUP

Saturday, November 5

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. II) Nov 5 1:20 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Birdrun John Velazquez William Mott 7-2
2 Baryshnikov Mike Smith Michael Maker 12-1
3 Meeznah Tom Queally David Lanigan 12-1
4 Pleasant Prince Joel Rosario Wesley Ward 12-1
5 Giant Oak Shaun Bridgemohan Chris Block 9-2
6 Brigantin Julien Leparoux Andre Fabre 8-1
7 Harrison’s Cave Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 30-1
8 Afleet Again Cornelio Velasquez Robert Reid Jr. 30-1
9 Cease Garrett Gomez Albert Stall Jr. 6-1
10 Eldaafer Javier Castellano Diane Alvarado 10-1
11 A. U. Miner Calvin Borel Clark Hanna 3-1

Selections: 6-5-9-3

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) Nov 5 2:02 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Gung Ho Mike Smith Michael Maker 20-1
2. Fantastic Song Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 20-1
3. Shkspeare Shaliyah Alex Solis Doodnauth Shivmangal 15-1
4. Farraaj Neil Callan Roger Varian 15-1
5. Wrote Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 12-
6. Coalport Junior Alvarado Wayne M. Catalano 15-1
7. Caspar Netscher Kieren Fallon Alan McCabe 6-1
8. Majestic City Garrett Gomez Peter Miller 4-1
9. Daddy Nose Best Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 30-1
10. Animal Spirits Robby Albarado Albert M. Stall Jr. 8-1
11. Excaper Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black 10-1
12. Lucky Chappy Joel Rosario H. Graham Motion 10-1
13 Finale John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 5-1
14. State of Play Ramon Dominguez H. Graham Motion 5-1
AE Tequila Factor Rafael Bejarano Wayne M. Catalano 30-1

Selections: 12-13-4-3

Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) Nov 5 2:37 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Euroears Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 4-1
2 Giant Ryan Cornelio Velasquez Bisnath Parbhoo 8-1
3 Aikenite Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
4 Hamazing Destiny Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 10-1
5 Jackson Bend Corey Nakatani Nicholas P. Zito 7-2
6 Force Freeze John Velazquez Peter R. Walder 10-1
7 Amazombie Mike Smith William Spawr 5-1
8 Big Drama Ramon Dominguez David Fawkes 5-2
9 Apriority Joel Rosario David Fawkes 30-1

Selections:1-5-7-9

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (gr. IIT) Nov 5 3:21 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Grand Adventure Javier Castellano Mark R. Frostad 20-1
2 Holiday for Kitten Joel Rosario Wesley A. Ward 30-1
3 Broken Dreams Garrett Gomez Thomas F. Proctor 20-1
4 Perfect Officer Kendrick Carmouche Michael Pino 12-1
5 Great Attack Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley A. Ward 20-1
6 California Flag Patrick Venezuela Brian J. Koriner 15-1
7 Hoofit Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 15-1
8 Regally Ready Corey Nakatani Steven M. Asmussen 3-1
9 Rapport Brian Hernandez Jr. Ronny W. Werner 30-1
10 Havelock Robby Albarado Darrin Miller 9-2
11 Country Day James Graham Stephen R. Margolis 20-1
12 Camp Victory Julien Leparoux Mike  R. Mitchell 12-1
13 Caracortado Joe Talamo Michael Machowsky 4-1
14 Chamberlain Bridge Jamie Theriot W. Bret Calhoun 5-1

Selections: 5-8-10-6

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) Nov 5 4:01 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. The Factor Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 7-2
2. Shackleford Jesus Castanon Dale Romans 7-2
3. Tapizar Garrett Gomez Steven Asmussen 20-1
4. Tres Borrachos Joel Rosario Martin F. Jones 30-1
5. Wilburn Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 4-1
6. Irrefutable Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 12-1
7. Jersey Town Cornelio Velasquez Barclay Tagg 15-1
8. Caleb’s Posse Rajiv Maragh Donnie K. Von Hemel 5-1
9. Trappe Shot John Velazquez Kiaran McLaughlin 3-1

Selections: 8-5-9-7

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. IT) Nov 5 4:45 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. St Nicholas Abbey Joseph P. O’Brien Aidan O’Brien 9-2
2. Sarafina Christophe Lemaire Alain De Royer-Dupre 5-2
3. Dean’s Kitten Ramon Dominguez Michael J. Maker 10-1
4. Stately Victor Mike Smith Michael J. Maker 30-1
5. Teaks North Javier Castellano Justin Sallusto 20-1
6. Await the Dawn Julien Leparoux Aidan O’Brien 7-2
7. Sea Moon Ryan Moore Sir Michael R. Stoute 4-1
8. Brilliant Speed John Velazquez Thomas Albertrani 20-1
9. Midday Tom Queally Sir Henry Cecil 4-1

Selections: 2-7-1-3

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) Nov 5 5:25 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Take Charge Indy James Graham Patrick B. Byrne 30-1
2 Dullahan Kent Desormeaux Dale L. Romans 8-1
3 Crusade Julien Leparoux Aidan P. O’Brien 12-1
4 Drill Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 8-1
5 Hansen Ramon Dominguez Michael J. Maker 10-1
6 Prospective Luis Contreras Mark E. Casse 30-1
7 Creative Cause Joel Rosario Mike Harrington 7-2
8 Speightscity Corey Nakatani Gary Contessa 20-1
9 Alpha Garrett Gomez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 15-1
10 Union Rags Javier Castellano Michael R. Matz 2-1
11 Daddy Long Legs Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 12-1
12 Fort Loudon Luis Gerardo Stanley Gold 20-1
13 Optimizer Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 15-1

Selections: 11-10-5-9

TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT) Nov 5 6:07 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Goldikova Olivier Peslier Freddy Head 7-5
2. Zoffany Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 20-1
3. Courageous Cat   Patrick Valenzuela William I. Mott 8-1
4. Mr. Commons Mike Smith John A. Shirreffs 20-1
5. Gio Ponti Ramon Dominguez Christophe Clement 4-1
6. Get Stormy Garrett Gomez Thomas M. Bush 15-1
7. Jeranimo Martin Garcia Mike Pender 20-1
8. Byword Maxime Guyon Andre Fabre 12-1
9. Court Vision Robby Albarado Dale L. Romans 30-1
10. Sidney’s Candy John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 15-1
11. Strong Suit Richard Hughes Richard Hannon 10-1
12. Compliance Officer Alex Solis Bruce Brown 30-1
13. Turallure Julien Leparoux Charles Lopresti 8-1

Selections: 3-1-11-8

Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) Nov. 5 7:00 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Prayer for Relief Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 30-1
2. Flat Out Alex Solis Charles L. Dickey 6-1
3. Drosselmeyer Mike Smith William Mott 15-1
4. Ruler On Ice Garrett Gomez Kelly Breen 30-1
5. So You Think Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 5-1
6. Ice Box Corey Nakatani Nichaolas P. Zito 30-1
7. Rattlesnake Bridge Calvin Borel Kiaran McLaughlin 30-1
8. Game On Dude Chantal Sutherland Bob Baffert 10-1
9. Stay Thirsty Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12-1
10. Havre de Grace Ramon Dominguez Larry Jones 3-1
11. Headache Paco Lopez Michael Maker 30-1
12. Uncle Mo John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 5-2
13. To Honor and Serve Jose Lezcano William Mott 12-1

Selections: 2-5-4-8

 

Friday, November 4

2011 BREEDERS’ CUP RESULTS

Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint Nov 4 4:10 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Seeker Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 4-1
2. Sum of the Parts Rajiv Maragh Thomas M. Amoss 15-1
3. Blacky the Bull Patrick Valenzuela Jeffrey L. Bonde 20-1
4. Trinniberg Cornelio Velasquez Bisnath Parbhoo 9-2
5. Shumoos Garrett Gomez Brian Meehan 15-1
6. Secret Circle Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 6-5
7. Holdin Bullets Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley A. Ward 15-1
8. Jake Mo Mike Smith Allen Milligan 20-1
9. Vexor David Cohen John C. Kimmel DVM 5-1

Juvenile Sprint Selections: 1-6-5-2 Results: 6-5-7-1

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) Nov 4 4:50 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 My Gi Gi Rafael Bejarano Brian J. Koriner 20-1
2 Dayatthespa Ramon Domniguez Chad C. Brown 12-1
3 Up Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 20-1
4 Stopshoppingmaria Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
5 Stephanie’s Kitten John Velazquez Wayne M. Catalano 12-1
6 Sweet Cat Garrett Gomez Todd A. Pletcher 10-1
7 Royal Bonnie Cornelio Velazquez George Weaver 30-1
8 Hard Not to Like Mike Smith Gail Cox 15-1
9 Pure Gossip Ryan Caratolo Philip M. Serpe 12-1
10 Elusive Kate William Buick John H.M. Gosden 2-1
11 Ann of the Dance Cori Nakatani Martin D. Wolfson 30-1
12 Dear Lavinia Christophe Lemarie Jean-Claude Rouget 30-1
13 Customer Base Julien Leparoux Thomas F. Proctor 12-1
14 Somali Lemonade Alex Solis Michael R. Matz 3-1
AE 15 Bourbonstreetgirl Joe Talamo Gary Contessa 30-1
AE 16 Karlovy Vary Garrett Gomez George R. Arnold II 30

Juvenile Fillies Turf Selections: 2-10-5-4 Results: 5-4-6-3

 

Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup F & M Sprint (gr. I) Nov 4 5:30 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Irish Gypsy Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 20-1
2. Great Hot Chantal Sutherland Antonio C. Avila 20-1
3. Turbulent Descent David Flores Mike Puype 6-5
4. Champagne d’Oro Corey Nakatani Eric J. Guillot 30-1
5. Musical Romance Juan Leyva William A. Kaplan 20-1
6. Switch Joel Rosario John Sadler 3-1
7. Tar Heel Mom Alex Solis Stanley Hough 12-1
8. Tanda Joe Talamo Mike Mitchell 20-1
9. Golden Mystery Kendrick Carmouche Juan Carlos Guerrero 20-1
10. Tamarind Hall David Cohen Jeremiah C. Englehart 20-1
11. Her Smile John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 15-1
12. Pomeroys Pistol Javier Castellano Amy Tarrant 6-1
13. Shotgun Gulch Garrett Gomez C. R. Trout 30-1

F&M Sprint Selections: 3-12-6-4  Results: 5-6-11-12

 

 

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) Nov 4 6:10 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Questing William Buick John Gosden 20-1
2 Candrea Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 6-1
3 Rocket Twentyone Eddie Razo, Jr. W.T. Howard 20-1
4 Miss Netta Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 15-1
5 Grace Hall Ramon Dominguez Anthony Dutrow 4-1
6 Self Preservation Joel Rosario Ben Cecil 15-1
7 Putthebabiesdown Alan Garcia Kenneth McPeek 30-1
8 Homecoming Queen Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 15-1
9 My Miss Aurelia Corey Nakatani Steven Asmussen 5-2
10 Northern Passion Luis Contreras Mark Casse 12-1
11 Weemissfrankie Rafael Bejarano Peter Eurton 4-1
12 Frolic’s Revenge John Velazquez Milton Wolfson 30-1
13 Say a Novena Elvis Trujillo Edward Plesa Jr. 30-1
14 Awesome Belle Luis Gerardo Stanley Gold 20-1

Juvenile Fillies Selections: 4-9-5-2  Results: 9-5-11-6

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf (gr. IT) Nov 4 6:50 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Dubawi Heights Joel Rosario Simon Callaghan 8-1
2. Stacelita Ramon Dominguez Chad C. Brown 2-1
3. Harmonious Martin Garcia John A. Shirreffs 10-1
4. Cambina Garrett Gomez Jeffrey L. Bonde 30-1
5. Nahrain Frankie Dettori Roger Varian 7-2
6. Announce Maxime Guyon Andre Fabre 9-2
7. Aruna Julien Leparoux H. Graham Motion 6-1
8. Perfect Shirl John Velazquez Roger L. Attfield 30-1
9. Shared Account Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 30-1
10. Distorted Legacy Rajiv Maragh Angel Penna Jr. 30-1
11. Dynaslew Corey Nakatani Seth Benzel 30-1
12. Misty For Me Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 10-1

F&M Turf Slections: 2-5-6-1  Results: 8-5-12-10

Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (gr. I) Nov 4 7:30 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Miss Match Garrett Gomez Neil D. Drysdale 10-1
2. Pachattack Rajiv Maragh Gerard A. Butler 12-1
3. It’s Tricky Ramon Dominguez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 5-1
4. Satans Quick Chick Edgar Prado Eric R. Reed 30-1
5. Ask the Moon Javier Castellano Martin D. Wolfson 6-1
6. Royal Delta Jose Lezcano Eric J. Guillot 5-2
7. Ultra Blend David Flores Art Sherman 8-1
8. Plum Pretty Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 2-1
9. Medaglia d’Amour Patrick Valenzuela Ben D. A. Cecil  
10. Super Espresso John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 20-1

Ladies Classic Selections: 6-3-8  Results: 6-3-2-7

 

Join us for Trackfacts Live tomorrow from 9:30 – 10:30 on OTB-TV or over the internet at capitalotb.com.

November 3, 2011…Calm Before the Cup!

November 3, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning.

Be sure to check with the Plod Boys at www.racingflow.com  for their Upgrade/Downgrade report for the Breeders Cup.

 

*BREEDERS CUP

The official order of races and post times for the 2011 Breeders’ Cup World Championships appears below:

All Times Eastern

Friday, November 4

2011 BREEDERS’ CUP ENTRIES

Friday, November 4, 2011

Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint Nov 4 4:10 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Seeker Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 4-1
2. Sum of the Parts Rajiv Maragh Thomas M. Amoss 15-1
3. Blacky the Bull Patrick Valenzuela Jeffrey L. Bonde 20-1
4. Trinniberg Cornelio Velasquez Bisnath Parbhoo 9-2
5. Shumoos Garrett Gomez Brian Meehan 15-1
6. Secret Circle Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 6-5
7. Holdin Bullets Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley A. Ward 15-1
8. Jake Mo Mike Smith Allen Milligan 20-1
9. Vexor David Cohen John C. Kimmel DVM 5-1

 Juvenile Sprint Selections: 1-6-5-2

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) Nov 4 4:50 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 My Gi Gi Rafael Bejarano Brian J. Koriner 20-1
2 Dayatthespa Ramon Domniguez Chad C. Brown 12-1
3 Up Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 20-1
4 Stopshoppingmaria Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
5 Stephanie’s Kitten John Velazquez Wayne M. Catalano 12-1
6 Sweet Cat Garrett Gomez Todd A. Pletcher 10-1
7 Royal Bonnie Cornelio Velazquez George Weaver 30-1
8 Hard Not to Like Mike Smith Gail Cox 15-1
9 Pure Gossip Ryan Caratolo Philip M. Serpe 12-1
10 Elusive Kate William Buick John H.M. Gosden 2-1
11 Ann of the Dance Cori Nakatani Martin D. Wolfson 30-1
12 Dear Lavinia Christophe Lemarie Jean-Claude Rouget 30-1
13 Customer Base Julien Leparoux Thomas F. Proctor 12-1
14 Somali Lemonade Alex Solis Michael R. Matz 3-1
AE 15 Bourbonstreetgirl Joe Talamo Gary Contessa 30-1
AE 16 Karlovy Vary Garrett Gomez George R. Arnold II 30

Juvenile Fillies Turf Selections: 2-10-5-4

Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup F & M Sprint (gr. I) Nov 4 5:30 PM

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Irish Gypsy Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 20-1
2. Great Hot Chantal Sutherland Antonio C. Avila 20-1
3. Turbulent Descent David Flores Mike Puype 6-5
4. Champagne d’Oro Corey Nakatani Eric J. Guillot 30-1
5. Musical Romance Juan Leyva William A. Kaplan 20-1
6. Switch Joel Rosario John Sadler 3-1
7. Tar Heel Mom Alex Solis Stanley Hough 12-1
8. Tanda Joe Talamo Mike Mitchell 20-1
9. Golden Mystery Kendrick Carmouche Juan Carlos Guerrero 20-1
10. Tamarind Hall David Cohen Jeremiah C. Englehart 20-1
11. Her Smile John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 15-1
12. Pomeroys Pistol Javier Castellano Amy Tarrant 6-1
13. Shotgun Gulch Garrett Gomez C. R. Trout 30-1

 F&M Sprint Selections: 3-12-6-4

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) Nov 4 6:10 PM

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Questing William Buick John Gosden 20-1
2 Candrea Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 6-1
3 Rocket Twentyone Eddie Razo, Jr. W.T. Howard 20-1
4 Miss Netta Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 15-1
5 Grace Hall Ramon Dominguez Anthony Dutrow 4-1
6 Self Preservation Joel Rosario Ben Cecil 15-1
7 Putthebabiesdown Alan Garcia Kenneth McPeek 30-1
8 Homecoming Queen Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 15-1
9 My Miss Aurelia Corey Nakatani Steven Asmussen 5-2
10 Northern Passion Luis Contreras Mark Casse 12-1
11 Weemissfrankie Rafael Bejarano Peter Eurton 4-1
12 Frolic’s Revenge John Velazquez Milton Wolfson 30-1
13 Say a Novena Elvis Trujillo Edward Plesa Jr. 30-1
14 Awesome Belle Luis Gerardo Stanley Gold 20-1

 Juvenile Fillies Selections: 4-9-5-2

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup F & M Turf (gr. IT) Nov 4 6:50 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Dubawi Heights Joel Rosario Simon Callaghan 8-1
2. Stacelita Ramon Dominguez Chad C. Brown 2-1
3. Harmonious Martin Garcia John A. Shirreffs 10-1
4. Cambina Garrett Gomez Jeffrey L. Bonde 30-1
5. Nahrain Frankie Dettori Roger Varian 7-2
6. Announce Maxime Guyon Andre Fabre 9-2
7. Aruna Julien Leparoux H. Graham Motion 6-1
8. Perfect Shirl John Velazquez Roger L. Attfield 30-1
9. Shared Account Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 30-1
10. Distorted Legacy Rajiv Maragh Angel Penna Jr. 30-1
11. Dynaslew Corey Nakatani Seth Benzel 30-1
12. Misty For Me Ryan Moore Aidan P. O’Brien 10-1

 F&M Turf Slections: 2-5-6-1

Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (gr. I) Nov 4 7:30 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Miss Match Garrett Gomez Neil D. Drysdale 10-1
2. Pachattack Rajiv Maragh Gerard A. Butler 12-1
3. It’s Tricky Ramon Dominguez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 5-1
4. Satans Quick Chick Edgar Prado Eric R. Reed 30-1
5. Ask the Moon Javier Castellano Martin D. Wolfson 6-1
6. Royal Delta Jose Lezcano Eric J. Guillot 5-2
7. Ultra Blend David Flores Art Sherman 8-1
8. Plum Pretty Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 2-1
9. Medaglia d’Amour Patrick Valenzuela Ben D. A. Cecil  
10. Super Espresso John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 20-1

Ladies Classic Selections: 6-3-8

 

Check back tomorrow for Saturday Breeders Cup Selections!

October 26, 2011 Kling Bias rating, Horses to Watch, Sunday Guests

October 26, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 10:00 – 11:00. This week our guests, Jim Mazur and DRF’s Marcus Hersh, will focus on the upcoming Breeders Cup.

*BREEDERS CUP

The official order of races and post times for the 2011 Breeders’ Cup World Championships appears below:

All Times Eastern

Friday, November 4

5. $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint – 4:10 pm
6. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) – 4:50 pm
7. $1 million Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) – 5:30 pm
8. $2 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) – 6:10 pm
9. $2 million Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) – 6:50 pm
10. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (gr. I) – 7:30 pm

Saturday, November 5

1. Allowance – 12:05 pm
2. Stakes – 12:35 pm
3. $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. II) – 1:20 pm
4. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) – 2:02 pm
5. $1.5 Million Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) – 2:37 pm
6. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (gr. II) – 3:21 pm
7. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) – 4:01 pm
8. $3 million Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I) – 4:45 pm
9. $2 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) – 5:25 pm
10. $2 million TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I) – 6:07 pm
11. $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) – 7:00 pm

 

* Nick Kling’s Track Bias Ratings for last week:

10/23   47       WT 18;IT 18

10/22   61       WT 18;IT 18

10/21   47       WT 18;IT 18

10/20   40  – track Good  0  – track Mud/Slop

10/19   44       no turf

 

* Horses to Watch from last week at Belmont Park:

October 19: Rice trained/owned Blue Punch (1st) deserves a second chance after blowing the start and racing wide over the slop on debut. David the Great and Black and Beauty (8th) chased, then brushed entering the stretch. David the Great flattened out; Blacn and Beauty came again along the inside.

October 20: Fiscal Stimulus and Happy Bull (Disqualified & placed 3rd) were claimed from the 7th race. Both should prove good claims for new connections.

October 21: Letsprovemwrong (22nd ) debuted for Contessa as part of an uncoupled entry under Jose Espinosa. A switch to a top jockey might signal Contessa’s intent. Silver Timber (5th) is not what he used to be approaching his 9th birthday. Hanger Paraiba (6th) found a field he could handle when favored Karakorum Electra failed to fire. He’s a bet against versus better than these. Idle American, 3rd from last throughout, was put to a drive, picked up horses before tipping widest to finish well and grab the show.

October 22: Obviously Tuesday (1st) is a talented runner for local connections. Follow. Corey Nakatani maneuvered Peggy Jane (4th) from Post 12 to chase along the inside in a solid debut effort behind debut killer Agave Kiss. Roddy Valente’s Jaw Crusher (4th)  broke with the field under Javier Castellano, dropped back off the pace and raced among horses while spinning his wheels, was angled to the inside, rallied well but had too much to do. Short price next out.

October 23: Cribnote (2nd) won this as the favorite. He is, however, a “crooked” left-front paddler. Crooked horses have soundness issues that catch up to them as they move up the class ladder to face tougher. Wild finish to the 5th race, a 2-yo turf heat where several finished very close at the wire when the pace collapsed. Could be a “key” race?

 

CHECK BACK. UPDATES WILL APPEAR AT THE TOP OF THE BLOG.

October 18, 2011 Weekend Review, Horses to Watch

October 18, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 10:00 – 11:00.

* Trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. has license revoked; granted a 30-day stay!

The 10-year revocation of Dutrow’s license to train horses in NY has been stayed for 30-days pending appeal. His legal team will argue that their client’s right to due process has, in some way, been violated by the State Racing and Wagering Board. Let’s hope the investigating body did due diligence in its investigation, deliberation and decision-making. That said, should the SRW Board’s decision stand, will one man’s 10-year license revocation raise the level of concern among “cheaters” in the game? Patrick Biancone’s revocation for possessing/using snake venom certainly did not! So what will?

D.Wayne Lukas, when interviewed a few years ago at the Racing Museum and Hall of Fame, had it right. He suggested that, rather than merely suspending trainers and placing horses in the hands of able assistants a cell-phone call away from the offender, horses in the care of trainers on suspension for violations should be prohibited from racing for the duration of the suspension. Penalties drawn by offending trainers would also fall upon owners (seeking purse money when they run) and racing secretaries (seeking to fill race cards)! Lukas suggested that the late Robert Lewis would have fired him if Lukas’ actions cost Mr. Lewis opportunities to race.

Racing is handle-driven. What gets measured gets noticed, and the industry measures handle. State governments depend on handle for much needed revenue. Any penalty that would diminish field size would impact handle. What gets noticed always gets acted upon. Under the Lukas penalty, therefore, to maintain field size and handle, racing jurisdictions would have a far more pressing interest in a “cleaner” game.

* Nick Kling’s Track Bias Ratings for last week:

10/16   47       WT 18;IT 9

10/15   28       WT 18;IT 9

10/14   29       WT 18;IT 9

10/13   17       WT 18;IT 9

10/10     58     no rail

* Horses to Watch from last week at Belmont Park:

October 13: Rough trip for favored Al’s lark (1st). Medieval Sword stalked pace setters but was caught behind horses in the lane, losing momentum in a race that is better than looks.

October 14: Siberian Wildcat (2nd) raced in the vice among horses and behind the pace setters in a loss to a perfect trip winner.

October 15: Honey Mou (3rd) tons the best in a traffic-filled journey.

October 16: Schillery (7th) debuted over turf for Jimmy Jerkens who does better over turf when his runners have more experience. This daughter of the very good turf runner and sire Artie Schiller is a half sister to Gunning For, a Grade 3 stakes winner over turf.

* SATURDAY STAKES REVIEW:

October 15

Belmont: The Grade 3 Athenia

Unbrideled Humor’s lone defeat came over turf labeled “good” in Grade 1 company to the very good Zagora and recent Spinster winner Aruna, but yielding turf may have been her undoing. She had no resistance for 9-2 Denomination, who cruised by that rival in the lane. Forget the rest.

Belmont: The Grade 3 Knickerbocker

Boisterous faced tougher company and looked, dropping in company to Grade 3, caught outsider Sleepless Knight in the shadow of the wire.

Keeneland: The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

Winter Memories went to post heavily favored, enjoyed a clear trip behind a moderate but constant pace, but lacked the explosive late move she made to win her previous race. Aiden O’Brien’s Together, racing back in 7-days after a rough trip 2nd against elders in the Grade 1 First lady Stakes, sat a perfect trip behind the pace setters, angled out in the lane, and powered to a 1 ¼ length victory.

*SUNDAY STAKES Review:

October 15

Woodbine: The 1 Pattison Canadian International

Sara Lynx enjoyed a perfect inside trip under jockey Cristophe Soumillon (fined $79,000 for violating new whip regulations in England the previous day) to upset the International at 22-1. The connections opted for the extra distance against males instead of facing fillies and mares in the 10-furlong E.P. Taylor. Defending International Champion Joshua Tree, suspect over very soft ground, was let go at 7-1. He handled the surface well enough to beat the rest. Treasure Beach, a rabbit for mate So You Can in the Arc, rebounded and ran a good 3rd.

Woodbine: The Grade 1 E.P.Taylor

Trainer Roger Attfield’ Miss Keller had not finished in the money in 5 starts this year since her placing in this race in 2010. She had not handled a yielding surface in two recent tries but did so on this day, scoring the upset under John Velazquez in a photo over I’m a Dream and favored Dream Peace.

CHECK BACK. UPDATES WILL APPEAR AT THE TOP OF THE BLOG.

October 13, 2011…Review/Preview!

October 13, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 10:00 – 11:00. We will review the double-disqualification from Belmont last week, Saturday stakes from Belmont and Keeneland, discuss the Racing and Wagering Board decision with respect to trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr., and take a quick look at stakes from Woodbine.

* Nick Kling’s Track Bias Ratings for last week:

10/09   25       no rail

10/08   75       no rail

10/07   42       no rail

10/06   33       no rail

10/05   48       no rail

* Horses to Watch from last week: 

Belmont October 5: Johnny’s Café (7th) fought the rider is what should be a useful debut effort. Departures (8th) subtle tough trip battling in the vice between rivals.

Belmont October 7: Dynamite Dude (2nd) encountered traffic in an effort that was better than looks. Unbridled Heat (5th) might win next out but will be overbet off an obvious tough trip. Simbamangu (6th) suffered a second straight traffic-filled effort. Another who will be short odds next out. Brown Indian (7th) was placed in tight quarters, bumped around and stopped late.

Belmont October 8: Zip Quick and Dance Floor (3rd) were bothered in the lane. Brilliant Speed (7th) was taken out of his game when forced to stalk up close to a soft pace. Rebounds with a better setup next out. Rubber Duck (10th) lost all chance at the break.

Belmont October 9: Gypsy Warrior (6th) raced wide under apprentice Irad Ortiz. Look for a jock switch next out. Volcano Run (7th) put in a big effort off the layoff since March. This one might need an interim race before firing a new top. Wallis (9th) was the victim in what resulted in a rare double disqualification.

Belmont October 10: Ruthenia (9th) raced in traffic. This is a talented filly who will be better as a 4-yo.

* SATURDAY STAKES PREVIEW:

October 15

Belmont: The Grade 3 Athenia

Unbrideled Humor’s lone defeat came over turf labeled “good” in Grade 1 company to the very good Zagora and recent Spinster winner Aruna. She beat today’s rivals Thai Haiku and Aquitaine setting an honest pace in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel. Denomination is a Grade 3 winner who has kept the toughest company. Stormy Dixie ships to Belmont in sharp form. Trainer Alan Goldberg leaves winning jockeys C.C. Lopez and Elvis Trujillo home??

Belmont: The Grade 3 Knickerbocker

Mr. Ryder (8-5-0-0 over turf) rides a three-race win streak while stepping up into Graded Stakes company for Clemente. 7-yoYummy With Butter has won two Grade 3s and held sharp form since shipping to Monmouth but could be a “horse for a different course” trying Belmont Park. Boisterous gets class relief, having faced Grade 1 rivals without success going longer. Boots Ahead should be part of the pace with stretch-out runner Jimmy Simms and Followmyfootsteps. Center Divider gets class relief. Chad Brown runner has raced well at today’s distance.

Keeneland: The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

Winter Memories will be heavily favored in her final race of the year, as connections will pass on the Breeders Cup and is clearly the one to deny. Team Valor’s Summer Soiree is the “stranger” to this field. She gets Ramon Dominguez, looms the one to catch in the lane. Star Billing exits the Grade 1 Delmar Oaks where she was narrowly defeated by Summer Soiree while finishing a nose ahead of Nereid. Together returns on short rest for trainer Aidan  O’Briend after making a winning move in the Grade 1 First Lady October 7 at Keeneland. More Than Real and Kathmanblu have been no match for Winter Memories.

*SUNDAY STAKES: (We will discuss these races Sunday morning on Trackfacts!)

October 15

Woodbine: The 1 Pattison Canadian International

Woodbine: The Grade 1 E.P.Taylor

CHECK BACK. UPDATES, WHICH WILL APPEAR AT THE TOP OF THE BLOG.

October 7, 2011…Weekend Stakes Preview

October 7, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 10:00 – 11:00. Jim Mazur, author of Crushing the Cup, will be our guest.

* Nick Kling’s Track Bias Ratings :  Check back next week!

* Horses to Watch : Check back next week!

* SATURDAY STAKES PREVIEW:

October 8

Belmont: The Grade 1 Frizette

My Miss Aurelia beat Stopshoppingmaria sprinting. That rival was off poorly in her Spa debut, and then beat a weak field when breaking her maiden…advantage to My Miss Aurelia. Spare Change, a daughter of Bernardini, will be the value horse.

Belmont: The Grade 1 Champagne

No Spin worked well over a good track for his main track debut after three career starts on polytrack. Might show more speed breaking from post 1. Takes the Gold was impressive breaking his maiden 2nd-out over this track and distance. Dutrow won the Champagne with Homeboy Kris and ran 2nd with Mountain Town. McLaughlin’s Alpha could not have been more impressive winning at 7-furlongs at Saratoga. This trainer has won graded stakes twice with runners stretching out in their second career start. Union Rags has worked extremely well at the Fair Hill Training Center and looms a short price. Kimmel’s Invocation has been competitive in both starts and, while still a maiden, is a threat at odds.

Belmont:  The Grade 1 Jamaica

Casino Host has kept top company while showing steady improvement for trainer Chad Brown. Brilliant Speed looms the favorite stepping up off a strong win in the Graded 3 Saranac. Seal Cove has won twice over soft ground; might prefer that condition. Stranger Western Aristocrat, on the improve, appears to prefer soft ground but jumped up on synthetic to win his last start. Top Surprise won with the benefit of a closer-favoring turf course.

Keeneland: The Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile

Sidney’s Candy is a one-dimensional front runner unlikely to wire these. Dance and Dance suffered a troubled trip last out at Woodbine. Zoffany lost a neck to the very good Frankel…watch out! Gio Ponti is prepping for Goldikova in the Breeders Cup Mile; he must race well but need not win. Wise Dan is a tough competitor on all surfaces in the hands of a sharpy in trainer Charles LoPresti. Get Stormy will vie with Sidney’s Candy; scratch of either moves the other up some.

Keeneland: The Grade  First Lady Stakes

This is an exceedingly competitive race. Daveron was impressive winning the Grade 2 Ballston Spa over rival Tapitsfly but may be overbet off three wins. Tapitsfly breaks way outside today. Euro-runner Together failed when shipped over for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but is a mile specialist, has kept top company, and is very dangerous. C.S. Silk is always dangerous if allowed to set soft fractions. Theysken’s Theory could not withstand the late rally by Winter Memories; she can win but may be overbet here. Gypsy’s Warning, a Grade 1 winner at the distance, is the “other” runner from Graham Motion, Daveron’s uncoupled stable mate. Never Retreat, a multiple graded stakes winner, cuts back to this one-mile distance and will be part of the pace.

Keeneland: The Grade 3 Woodford Stakes

Goldzar was the beneficiary of a closer-biased turf course in winning his last. Country Day should improve 2nd off a layoff; ran 2nd to last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Champion back in February. Great Attack is lightly-raced with upside. He was narrowly beaten by the very good Bridgetown. Havelock might benefit most from a strong pace. Varsity gets a class test. Great Mills is back at his best distance.

Keeneland: The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Futurity

This is a wide open race over polytrack. Graham Motion/Team Valor runner, Lucky Chappy, may be worth a flyer…gets Dominguez!

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Ancient Title

A field of six headed by The Factor, one of two running for Bob Baffert, facing elders for the first time. Uncoupled stablemate Irrefutable appears to be the main rival.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Oak Tree Mile

Jeranimo’s efforts in the Grade 12 Kilroe Mile and Grade 2 Arcadia can win this. He has faced the very good Acclamation in his last two. Others in here have taken turns beating one another.

*SUNDAY STAKES PREVIEW:

October 9

Keeneland: The Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster

This is an extremely competitive heat before scratched, with a few cross-entered on the Saturday card. Super Espresso, from Todd Pletcher, makes her polytrack debut, has kept top company and breaks inside under Leparoux.  Aruna switches from turf to synthetic, has trained well over Tapeta at the Fair Hill Training Center and the Keeneland polytrack, and is well-regarded by trainer Graham Motion. Tapitsfly is cross-entered in the First Lady Stakes; tries poly as well. Sheppard’s Sugar Again owns a win over poly, albeit sprinting. Stars to Shine chased the pace in the Grade 2 Canadian and owns two wins over polytrack. Pletcher also had Embur’s Song, a two-time winner at Keeneland. Theysken’s Theory is another cross-entered in the First Lady Stakes; she enters off a solid USA debut over turf against Winter Memories. Pachattack has run well over a variety of surfaces; needs a super effort breaking from the far outside.

Keeneland: The Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes

Animal Spirits was nailed on the wire in his debut by Fantastic Song. That rival ran 3rd beaten a length in the Grade 3 Pilgrim. Trainer Graham Motion has cross-entered Lucky Chappy in the Breeders Cup Futurity to be run on polytrack on Saturday. Smart Ellis hails from trainer Richard Mandella, who does not ship friviolously. Garret Gomez is named to ride Tom Proctor’s Monastic, who has handled soft and firm turf; note the very sharp Oct 3 work.

 

 

CHECK BACK. UPDATES, WHICH WILL APPEAR AT THE TOP OF THE BLOG.

Octiober 4, 2011 Belmont Review, Stakes Review

October 4, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 10:00 – 11:00. Jim Mazur, author of Crushing the Cup, will be our guest.

* Nick Kling’s Track Bias Ratings for last week:

From Nick Kling’ Troy Record column:

“For the most part, the turf courses have played fairly, despite the rain. For starters only 7 have been run when the grass has been designated soft or yielding. Oddly, turf sprints have been more kind to closers than have the turf routes. I suspect that’s because of the small sample size.

With the exception of Sunday, the Belmont dirt surface has been speed-favoring or biased when wet. Sprints have been more biased than routes and clearly skewed toward early speed. Routes have been a bit speed-favoring, far more so than when the track is fast or “good.”

The numerical rating I calculate stands at 70 for wet track sprints and 53 for routes.

Dirt sprint races when the track is labeled fast or good have been even (52 rating. Routes under those conditions have been closer-friendly (36 rating).”

Remember, the sample size is still modest and the ratings can change as it grows larger.

Here are Nick’s Bias ratings:

10/02     33     no rail

10/01     67     no rail

09/30     67     no turf

09/29     62     WT 18;IT 27

09/28     07     WT 18;IT 27

* Horses to Watch from last week:

September 28: Molly’s Ship (1st) has a subtle trip racing in the vice between rivals. Sunshine Rambler (5th) was lost momentum when beaten to a lane when making a move.

September 29: Tatoo Me (5th) took the worst of bumping at the start. Film Making finally ran to her good pedigree. Point of Entry (5th) is another who battled in the vice and kept on gamely.

October 1: Justin Philip (7th) needs cheaper and will win at Churchill or Fair Grounds next.

October 2: Living Right (6th) raced in traffic throughout.
* SATURDAY STAKES REVIEW:

October 1

Belmont: The Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational

Stacelita is tons best here with a wide trip under Ramon Dominguez. Dynaslew, showing life of late, fails to hold place. Deluxe, making her second USA start for Bill Mott following a strong finish going one-mile at Saratoga, comes up empty.

Belmont: The Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational

Cape Blanco might have locked up HOY as Turf male with this 3rd Grade 1 but was all to hold off Dean’s Kitten over the yielding course. Disappointing effort from Winchester. Cape Blanco came out of the race with an injury and has been retired.

Belmont:  The Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational

Complex race to decipher with speedster Euroears breaking slowly then compromised when Calibrachoa, under Rajiv Maragh, came over bothering that one and Apriority. Speedy Giant Ryan rode the speed favoring surface to the upset win. Force Freeze raced well but prefers it dry/fast. Trappe Shot, despite the pedigree, might not be as good as his reputation and potential suggest.

Belmont: The Grade 2 Kelso Handicap

Uncle Mo looked impressive beating three rivals over a speed favoring surface and 23.47/46.03 early fractions. Nice public workout! Jackson Bend raced well against the track.

Belmont: The Grade 1 Beldame Invitational

Life At Ten has not been able to regain the form she had to win this race in 2010. She reunites with John Velazquez, breaks from post 1, and will be fair odds adding blinkers. If Royal Delta can repeat the effort that won her Alabama against elders, she may be able to test favored Havre de Grace.

Belmont: The Jockey Cup Golf Cup

Harve de Grace disposed of these and may now be pointed for the Classic. Connections have options with the defection of Blind Luck from the Ladies Classic. We suggested that performances of Rattlesnake Bridge and J W Blue in the Pennsylvania Derby did not flatter Travers winner Stay Thirsty, who had no resistance for the late running Drosselmeyer. Flat Out projected the perfect stalking trip he received while wisely placed closer to the pace on the speed favoring track..

Hoosier Park: The Indiana Derby

Steve Asmussen’s improving 3-yo Wilburn cruised by Shackleford to win the Indiana Derby. The return to a 2-turn route was a failure for Caleb’s Posse. He’ll be sprinting in the near future. Populist Politics, an improving horse, was scratched. He closed very well in the Louisiana Super Derby and may be fair odds when returning.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Norfolk

Favorites 1-2 stretching out for the first time in a race with a Kentucky Derby impact. Creative Cause, a rough trip loser to Drill last out, crushed Drill and the rest.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Lady’s Secret

Blind Luck came up empty and will miss the Breeders Cup. Zazu and Ultra Blend were a neck apart in the Clement Hirsch. Zazu had solid works over the Santa Anita oval prior to the race. Follow Champagne d’Oro. She will win soon, at big odds.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Goodwood

Acclamation scratched out and won the Clement Hirsch over turf. Baffert’s Game On Dude owned the best dirt form. As we expected, Baffert’s Coil returned to stalking tactics but was not good enough. Congrats to OTB sponsor West Point Thoroughbreds and 8-yo Awesome Gem for running a strong 2nd.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon

Dubawi  Heights had done little wrong since arriving in the states, just missing to Stacellita in the Beverly D. Stacelita won easily earlier in the day at Belmont and Dubawi Heights win flatters that rival. Turning Top, Cozi Rosie, Malibu Pier, City to City, Harmonious and Medaglia d’Amour have raced against each other several times; Cozie Rosie managed to beat those in running 2nd.

*SUNDAY STAKES REVIEW:

October 2

Belmont: The Grade 3 Tempted

Shippers Believe You Can and Perennial Song ran 1-2 with winner Believe You Can sitting a perfect trip behind duelist. Perennial song put a way Select Cat but could not resist the winner.

Belmont: The Grade 3 Nashua

Winner Vexor and runner-up Trinniberg faced each other in the Hopeful at Saratoga. John Kimmel’s Vexor proved best over the wet track at 18-1.

Belmont: The Grade 3 Miss Grillo

Flying Zee stable has been on an extraordinary run and Phil Serpe’s Pure Gossip scored another long-odds upset when favored Alaura Michelle came up empty.

Belmont: The Grade 3 Pilgrim

Shakespeare Shaliyah raced well at Saratoga and continued to improve, outkicking rivals late over the yielding surface to score a 1-length victory as the favorite in a race the was very competitive.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Oak Leaf

Undefeated Weemissfrankie transferred her good form to dirt in narrowly winning the Oak Leaf over Candrea and Charm the Maker.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Clement Hirsch:

Acclamation narrowly beat Champ Pegasus, who was nearly 4-lengths clear of the field, and takes a 5-race win streak into the Breededs Cup. Connections are considering the Turf and the Classic. Runner-up Champ Pegasus is pointed to the Turf .

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Weekend:

Our analyst Mark Cramer did not have the long shot winner of the Arc. There were 24 French public handicappers, each picking their top 8 picks for the Arc, and of the 24; only two had the Arc winner even mentioned in their top 8! Connections are considering 4th place finisher So You Think for the Classic. We are always interested when Andre Fabre sends a 3-yo Arc participant and will see what he opt to do with Meandre. Mark did, however, select Elusive Kate to win on the undercard.

CHECK BACK. UPDATES, WHICH WILL APPEAR AT THE TOP OF THE BLOG.

September 29, 2011…Review, Belmont Profile, Horses to Watch, Stakes Preview

September 29, 2011

Tom Amello periodically posts comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events. Check back for updates.

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 10:00 – 11:00.

MARK CRAMER’S analysis of the Arc:

Trainer Alain Royer-Dupré says that his filly Sarafina (the current Arc favorite) is one of ten horses that could win the Arc de Triomphe.  Paris-Turf handicapper Patrice LaPorte calls this race “quite difficult” to handicap.

Here is what I have extracted as seemingly the most important factors, given track conditions (firm), trainer angles, and of course, the current class and form of the entrants.

SARAFINA. Trainer and owner are experienced Arc winners. Sarafina finished 3rd last year after considerable trouble that may have cost her a win. But poetic justice is not enough. This year, she has defeated some fine horses, including the gelding Cirrus des Aigles, who also lost by a neck to Goldikova, with those two losses sandwiched between a string of wins. On Longchamp prep day three weeks ago, Sarafina, not fully cranked up, won the Prix Foy, for older horses, which rarely produces Arc winners, and is usually run about 2 seconds slower than the Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares and the Prix Niel for 3yo colts. But this year, the final time of the Prix Foy was faster than the Niel (won by Reliable Man) and the Vermeille (won by Galikova). So even though the Arc favors 3yos, Sarafina is a legit favorite. Other negatives: 3yos have won 7 of last 10 Arcs, and single-digit post positions have won 8 of last 10.

HIRUNO  D’AMOUR and NAKAYAMA FESTA. Japenese horses have been knocking at the door of the Arc for a decade. This could be the time. Last year, NAKAYAMA FESTA  was barely defeated by WORKFORCE. He has come back after a long layoff for only one prep race, same race as Sarafina, in which he led until the final 150 yards, dropping to 4th and last. That was after a 9-month layoff! Could bounce but the stable is confident. Trainer Yoshitaka Ninomiyama says, “We came here to win this year.” However, 5yos have only won 5% of all Arcs. The 4yo HIRUNO D’AMOUR lost by a neck to Sarafina in the same race, 2 1/2 lengths ahead of Arc hopeful St. Nicolas Abbey. HIRUNO went into that race following a layoff preceded by two straight wins in Japan, one longer and one shorter than the Arc distance. PROBLEM: post positions, number 1 for Hiruno, who risks getting boxed in, and the outside 16 for Nakayama, which might add a few precious yards to his trip. Another negative is that 8 of the last 10 Arc winners had won their previous start.

GALIKOVA, Goldikova’s full sister and winner of the Prix Vermeille, has a good post, gets Peslier, and has beaten the boys before. Problem: in one interview, trainer Freddie Head said that his filly was already growing a winter coat, and the temperature will be in the high 80s. But Head still remains confident, and the filly has the all-important tactical speed to get a good early position. Stats shine well on Galikova, with the 5 kilogram (11 pound) weight advantage over the older horses). Trainer Head had a win on a non-favorite in Saturday’s pre-Arc stakes, so he’s peaking.

MEANDRE. Supplemented by André Fabre, no stranger to the Arc winners circle, just lost to RELIABLE MAN by 2 in the Prix Niel when there were rumors of flu in the Fabre stable, but trounced the same Reliable Man in the summer. Of Reliable Man, trainer Royer-Dupré says, “he would have preferred a yielding track”. Tough call between these two, but I am taking a chance on Meandre. Please note that RELIABLE MAN, if you play only on stats, qualifies by post, age, win in last race, won at distance, etc. A racing photographer told me that Mossé, the rider of RELIABLE MAN, whispered to him that he gives an edge to SARAFINA. Could be a plot to raise the odds of Reliable Man. (Mossé was aboard Sarafina in last year’s ARC.) André Fabre had a non-favorite winner in a pre-Arc stakes on Saturday, so he’s also on a peak.

MASKED MARVEL. In the French Derby trainer John Gosden pulled a coup, finishing in the money with a seemingly inferior horse at 50-1. Masked Marvel has not defeated the same level of horses but the Gosden angle is worth chasing, at a generous price. A number of stats work against this horse, but other stats say he can be in the money. Of all the Arc trainers, only John Gosden has a flat-bet profit in French races, through 23 races, with Stoute profiting from only 4 races, too small a sample. Gosden’s rider, Buick, also shows a flat-bet profit in French races.

SNOW FAIRY.  If you like SO YOU THINK, then you have to also like the filly Snow Fairy, who lost to SO YOU THINK by only a half length and whose Japanese wins were over a track that resembles Longchamp. Dettori is the only rider to have defeated the near perfect So You Think in Europe and he will be aboard SNOW FAIRY.

WORKFORCE won last year’s edition, and in spite of two consecutive defeats, Stoute says he’s better this year. The British bookies do not agree, making him third choice. He can handle the firm going, which constitutes an advantage.

SO YOU THINK, probably second favorite, but got caught in the Prince of Wales Stakes this summer by Rewilding, a good but not great horse, with Dettori on Rewilding. The issue with SO YOU THINK is whether he can win at a mile and a half. Not yet done so. Also the negative stat for 5yos in the Arc.

 

I have tried to give objective information that you may not have had before, and you may choose certain pieces of information over others, which would change the order of these horses. Several other horses in the field cannot be completely eliminated, based on what they can do on their best day.

My order is based simply on the spin of chaos. My second choice is the imagined entry of the two Japanese horses, but based on individual horses, I would place Galikova second, and Nakayama Festa, because of the age and the 16 post, would be placed behind Meandre.

On the undercard, a fascinating possibility in the 2yo fillies (Prix Marcel Boussac) is Gosden’s ELUSIVE KATE. All six horses have a chance to win this one. Elusive Kate stretches out one furlong. Yesterday, her American sire, Elusive Quality, produced a Grade I winner in Australia.  The favored 6 horse has already won at the distance and at Longchamp, but on yielding tracks. Elusive Kate has won on dirt, on good and on good-to-yielding, and I am hoping the American pedigree will help over the firm going.

Goldikova goes in the 7f downhill Prix de la Foret. I am a fan of this mare and cannot comment objectively. She lost at 6/10 in her last, having struggled to hold on to the place. The horse that beat her is 4 for 7 lifetime and came into that race off a Grade I win at Ascot, and the horse she edged out for second came back to win a Grade I at Newmarket. She also finished ahead of such class horses as Planteur and Dick Turpin. There is a fast 3yo in the Prix de la Foret who could challenge Goldikova: Dream Ahead, who is 5 for 8 lifetime and has two convincing wins over the type of firm turf we are expected to see. But Dream Ahead is unproven beyond 6 furlongs.

* Nick Kling’s Track Bias Ratings for last week:

Date  MTR       Temp Rail settings on Turf Courses

09/25 52                      no turf

09/24 70                      no turf

09/23 69                      IT 27

09/22 50                     WT 9;IT 27

09/21 67                     WT 9;IT 27

* Horses to Watch from last week:

September 21- Colossal Gift (6th) was rated under a hard hold under Dominguez before making a late bid without threatening the winner.

September 22- Far From Shy and Makeminechocolate (1st) had eventful trips behind 58-1 upsetter Unique Citizen. Cosmic King and Marine Officer (4th) rallied well from far back.

September 23- Track labeled sloppy/sealed. Favored Mr. Magenta (1st) was squeezed back after the start and chased throughout. Favored Miss Diane (4th) labored along the inside, not the place to be. Beau Choix (6th) deserves a long look when back on firm ground. Associate (9th), a well-regarded but only moderately successful runner for Whitehall Stable, jogged first off the Dutrow claim. Might be worth following.

September 24- Trainer Bruce Brown unveiled Spring to the Sky (2nd), a 9 ¾ – length winner. Little Wyatt showed speed in his Spa debut going 7-furlongs against. Deserves another chance over a dry/fast surface. Papa’s Nice Cat (5th) broke in the air from the far outside and chased throughout. Was wide breaking outside in his last as well. Might race better than odds with a better start from a better post next out.

September 25- Brilliant Autumn (2nd) broke awkwardly, was rushed up, then bothered entering the turn. Lubango (3rd) made the lead when Regal Strike had trouble at the start; they ran 1-2 around the track. Grand Strategy took the worst of the bumping with Regal Strike. Three favorites vying early set the table for 16-1 Unusual Laz (4th) to run them down. That runner was bet hard in the exotics in what appears to have been a betting coup.

SATURDAY STAKES:

October 1

Belmont: The Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational

Deluxe makes her second USA start for Bill Mott following a strong finish going one-mile at Saratoga. Breaks inside under John Velazquez and is certain to make a forward move. Stacellita, fresh from a victory in the Grade 1 Beverly D looms the favorite. Aruna, from Graham Motion, has kept top company and is capable of racing better than odds.  Dynaslew, Emerald Beach & Seneda have taken turns beating one another. Gitchee Goomee is a late running NYBred.

Belmont: The Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational

Cape Blanco has won two Grade 1s for top Euro-trainer Aidan O’Brien. Teaks North flattened out in the Sword Dancer and is capable of improving at fair odds. Dean’s Kitten was unable to resist the late running Gio Ponti when finishing 3rd behind Cape Blanco last out. Grassy finished very well in winning the Bowling Green and switches to John Velazquez. Winchester won this race over yielding turf in 2010 and looks to be moving forward.

Belmont:  The Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational

Trappe Shot looks to make amends for a costly tardy start in the A G Vanderbilt. He is undefeated at Belmont Park. 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint Champion Big Drama cuts back to his best distance following a series of fine works. Bob Baffert ships the speedy Euroears, a one-dimensional front-runner. Owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher send the entry of Calibrachoa, 3rd behind Trappe Shot at Saratoga, and Caixa Electronica, a surprise winner of the Grade 3 Westchester who has been facing Starter Handicap rivals of late.

Belmont: The Grade 2 Kelso Handicap

Jersey Town, upset winner of the Cigar Mile, is a lightly-raced 5-yo rounding into form for trainer Barclay Tagg. Jackson Bend has found new life as a one-turn sprinter; enters this one-turn mile in top form for Nick Zito. Uncle Mo did everything but win the Grade 1 Kings Bishop, has worked well since, and looms the short-priced horse to beat.

Belmont: The Grade 1 Beldame Invitational

Life At Ten has not been able to regain the form she had to win this race in 2010. She reunites with John Velazquez, breaks from post 1, and will be fair odds adding blinkers. If Royal Delta can repeat the effort that won her Alabama against elders, she may be able to test favored Havre de Grace.

Belmont: The Jockey Cup Golf Cup

The race lost some luster with the defection of Tiznow. The performances of Rattlesnake Bridge and J W Blue in the Pennsylvania Derby did not flatter Travers winner Stay Thirsty. Look for Drosselmeyer to lay back off honest fractions forced by uncoupled mate Birdrun. Flat Out projects a perfect stalking trip.

Hoosier Park: The Indiana Derby

Trainer Dale Romans sends Shackleford this 1 1/6 mile distance for the first time; I would have liked to see him in at one-mile in the Kelso. Caleb’s Posse has won two stakes since cutting back to 7-furlong sprints, so it’s a bit of a surprise that they are trying 2-turns. He is, however, a winner at the distance. Populist Politics has the look of an improving horse. He closed very well in the Louisiana Super Derby and will be fair odds.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Norfolk

Two-year olds stretch out for the first time in a race with a Kentucky Derby impact. Bob Baffert’s Drill will probably go favored. He beat Creative Cause (rough trip) and Basmati last out. Loukas is an unknown Euro-runner.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Lady’s Secret

Blind Luck, the horse to beat, arrives rested since the July 16 win over Havre de Grace in the Delaware Handicap. Champagne d’Oro has been unable to recover the form that led to upset wins at 3, but trainer Eric Gullot is a long shot trainer. Ask the Moon ships west for cagey Marty Wolfson and will take these as far as she can on the front end. Zazu and Ultra Blend were a neck apart in the Clement Hirsch. Zazu has the works over the Santa Anita oval.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Goodwood

Acclamation has won wire-to-wire over turf and synthetic in his last four; lacks a win on dirt and is likely to scratch and run over turf on Sunday in the Clement Hirsch. Coil won the Haskell from off the pace, was outrun in the Travers; might revert to stalking tactics seeking form reversal today. Mismatch has kept top company and reunites with Garrett Gomez for trainer Neil Drysdale. Game On Dude owns the best dirt form in the field. Richard Mandella’s Preamble gets tested for class today.

Santa Anita: The Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon

Dubawi  Heights has done little wrong since arriving in the states. Just missed to Stacellita in the Beverly D. Watch Stacellita’s effort at Belmont earlier in the day to gauge this one. Turning Top, Cozi Rosie, Malibu Pier, City to City, Harmonious and Medaglia d’Amour have raced against each other several times.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Weekend:

Four races will be simulcast Saturday October 1 and seven races Sunday October 2, culminating with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 10:15 AM.

We expect to receive a detailed analysis from our friend in Paris, Mark Cramer. I will post his analysis here when I receive it.

CHECK BACK AGAIN AS I’LL ADD UPDATES!

September 23, 2011…Weekend Preview!

September 23, 2011

Tom Amello periodically post comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events.

Check the Capital OTB website for notification of updates, or bookmark this page and check back for updates!

* Join Nick Kling and me for Trackfacts Live this Sunday morning from 9:30 – 11:00. Our guest is advertising and marketing executive, Fred Pope, from Lexington, Ky. Fred will discuss his ideas and efforts to bring about “structural” changes to thoroughbred racing in the U.S., changes he believes are needed for the game to grow and prosper.

*Congratulations and “Trackfacts Salutes” to local connections for wins this week. Parting Glass Racing got Wholelottasahaking to the wire on the 21st. Roddy Valente and friends got very well when Stanford Dolly was let go in the betting off a dull effort at Saratoga and returned $32.40!

* A field of 9 will go to post Saturday in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing. Belmont winner Ruler on Ice, Rattlesnake Bridge and J W Blue exit the Travers Stakes. J W Blue stablemate Rush Now returns off a good 2nd in the West Virginia Derby. Bill Mott’s To Honor and Serve crushed rivals in an optional claimer at Saratoga, his 2nd off a layoff since abandoning the Triple Crown trail after the Florida Derby. The Dutrow runners, J W Blue and Rush Now are both cross-entered in the Grade 3 Kent Stakes to be run over turf at Delaware Park. Cornelio Velasquez is named to ride at Delaware and Parx Racing!

* A field of 13 entered the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park. Michael Stidham’s Willcox Inn, 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, looms large as the favorite off a solid effort in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park. Weather will be a factor and Willcox Inn might scratch, leaving the race wide open if run over turf. Casino Host (Chad Brown), Breathless Storm (McLaughlin) and Fire With Fire (Mott), and Crimson China are less accomplished but improving 3-yos. J W Blue and Rush Now would be making turf debuts but are a formidable duo should the race switch to dirt.

* A short field of 7 go to post at Belmont Park in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom to be run at 6 ½ furlongs. Tar Heel Mom and Pomeroy’s Pistol are the favorites. TGar heel Mom stumbled badly losing all chance in the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga. Pomeroy’s Pistol was a non-threatening 2nd to Turbulent Descent while finishing well clear of third in the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga. Buckleupbuttercup owns a win at this tricky distance and might offer some value. Moontune Missy, Katy Now, Tamarind Hall and Lovely Lil complete the field.

* Horses to Watch:

September 21- Colossal Gift (6th) was rated under a hard hold under Dominguez before making a late bid without threatening the winner.

September 22- Far From Shy and Makeminechocolate (1st) had eventful trips behind 58-1 upsetter Unique Citizen. Cosmic King and Marine Officer (4th) rallied well from far back.

UPDATE:

* To Honor and Serve dominated the field in the Pennsylvania Derby. He stalked pacesetter Rush Now from the outside, the place to be at Parx Racing, cruised to the lead and was never threatened. Ruler On Ice was far back throughout, finished well and galloped out better than the winner. Rattlesnake Bridge was no match for the winner.

* The Kent Stakes was decimated by scratches when the race was switched to turf. I’m Steppin’ It Up, the main speed after scratches, wired a short field under top jockey Jeremy Rose. West Point Thoroughbred’s King Congie went to post as the favorite and finished 2nd.

* Pomeroy’s Pistol dominated her field in the Gallant Bloom. Favored Tar Heel Mom was dreadful.

TODAY’S BELMONT CARD:

Race 3: Regal Strike returns and races first-time for Dutrow, a potent angle. Grand Strategy is 3-0-3-0 at today’s distance. Game Token is 3rd off the layoff for the cagey Dennis Lalman.

Race 5: Flavor Girl looms the speed to catch, unless one of the debut runners shows speed.

Race 7: We’ll root for Trackfacts Live sponsor Saratoga Water Company (Spa City Princess) should this race be shifted to the main track.

 

Luck!

 

 

September 19…Weekend Review!

September 19, 2011

Tom Amello periodically post comments and picks on Belmont Park, along with some other tracks and events.

Check the Capital OTB website for notification of updates, or bookmark this page and check back for updates!

*On Sunday, Trackfacts contributor Ed Bain sent in 4 high-percentage trainer plays, with 1 winner and 2 running in-the-money. At Belmont, Kiaran McLaughlin’s In Step, a 31% play sprinting first after a layoff, returned $12.60. Check out Ed’s FREE trainer stats at www.edbain.com. Join us next week for Ed’s plays.

* Trackfacts viewer and e-mailer Zenyatta John gave out Green Monster ($12.20) in the Belmont Park 6th.

* Cornelio Velasquez rode four winners on Sunday’s card – Beautyinthepulpit ($11.20), Singn On Themoon ($8.90), Green Monster ($12.20), and Hoopskirt ($8).

*Below are Nick Kling’s Track Bias ratings for the main track and the two turf courses:

*Please note: Possible bad rail 9/15-16

Date         MTR       Temp Rail settings on Turf Courses

09/18      33         WT 9;IT 0

09/17     67         WT 9;IT 0

09/16        0         WT 9;IT 27

09/15     33         WT 9;IT 27

09/14     67         WT 9;IT 27

09/11     61         WT 0;IT 27

09/10    38         WT 0;IT 27

 

*Weekend Stakes at Belmont Park:

Winter Memories exploded when finally clear in the lane and caught Euro-runner Theysken’s Theory under new rider Javier Castellano to take the Garden City. A questionable ride in the Lake Placid at Saratoga cost Jose Lezcano the mount; watch the Lake Placid and tell me Javier did much better! Unbridled Humor made amends for her failure at Saratoga, battled for the lead with a rank outsider, put that rival away and drew clear.

*Horses to Watch from Belmont Park September 17:

Cool Operator (1st) stumbled badly at the start and was not hard used by Castellano. Monitor future works. Not Tell (3rd) altered course late and finished well. Scappare (4th) was squeezed back after the start but ran on well. Which Market (10th) debuted for Neil Howard and vied throughout in a very good debut effort. Tab.

*Horses to Watch from Belmont Park, September 18:

Favored Longwood Lane (2nd), boxed in behind the leader by Kent Desormeaux on 16-1 Awesome’s Gem down the backside when rider John Velazquez moved to get off the inside for racing room, never ran freely till too late; will win soon. By M K (5th) a perfect trip winner behind duelists; might be vulnerable next.

Woodbine Stakes:

*Saturday, September 17:

The Natalma and Summer Stakes are Breeders Cup “Win and Your In” events. Trainer Mark Casse had 4 entered in the Natalma and Northern Passion (6-1) enjoyed a perfect rail trip in running down Chad Brown’s Day at the Spa, who had stalked the honest pace, made the lead but had no resistance for the winner. Todd Pletcher won the 2010 Summer Stakes with Team Valor’s Pluck, who went on the win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. His colt Finale has shown marked improvement since switching to turf, and won this race easily, despite a late challenge from Excaper. Finale was part of Pletcher’s Monmouth string this summer, suggesting he has better in the barn. Asmussen’s Daddy Nose Best rallied well from far back over the expansive Woodbine turf course.

*Sunday September 18:

Trainer Chris Block and his Team Block stable are very dangerous when shipping. His Never Retreat took the 9-furlong Dance Smartly over this turf course, defeating several of these. In the Grade 2 Canadian, Never Retreat stalked, then took the lead and cleared, holding off the fast closing Perfect Shirl. Perfect Shirl had not yet run back to her excellent 3-yo form but showed two sharp works for this. Jonathan Sheppard’s Fantasia was in traffic and finished well when clear. Favored Zagora was bumped around in the lane and failed to menace.

I was against Michael Bell’s favored Wigmore Hall off a troubled effort in the Grade 1 Arlington Million as his wins are from off the pace and at narrow margins, but this one found clear sailing along the inside in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer to get up but a short neck over Roger Attfield’s Simmard. That rival made the lead, cleared but was caught in a game effort. Al Kahli looked a winner when making a late rally under Alan Garcia but came up short again.

In the Ricoh Woodbine Mile, Terralure cutback from a 9-furlong win in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch and closed with a rush to nail favored Courageous Cat. That one was on the pace throughout in a game effort. Christope Clement kept his top runner Gio Ponti and sent Right One to test the mettle of this field. Right One finished well despite some traffic missing the place by a nose. Euro Side Glance hung & Dance and Dance broke poorly.

Leave a comment or ask a question.

I’ll be away most of this week and will update the blog Thursday night or Friday morning.

Luck!


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